Last Updated on: 14th February 2021, 11:58 am
Yield chasing refers to the situation where a central bank is suppressing interest rates at low or negative levels.
In more sophisticated language, behavioral finance theorists find that if you give us a choice between certain loss and a bad bet, we will almost all opt for the bad bet.
They don’t go one step further and explain that we don’t like to admit to taking a bad bet so we become highly receptive to dubious narratives which seem to turn the fundamentally bad bet into a good one.
The yield chasers who buy risky bonds to get additional yield over negative or low rates on safe bonds spin a narrative according to which the credit risk is actually lower than usual.
For example in the oil industry, they may have subscribed to the speculative hypothesis that oil prices would remain permanently high.
In the equity and real estate markets we have heard much about “there is nowhere else to go,” or “TINA” but in rational mode, the individual would know that prices already reflect the desperation of investors struck by interest income famine.
This is where financial engineers come in.
The job of a financial engineer is to work on the capital structure of firms in ways to bolster apparent rates of return in a rising equity market.
In such famine conditions, financial engineers find that the demand for their services booms.
The main technique they apply is to ramp up leverage, camouflaging this as much as possible (income famine investors are unusually susceptible).
The consequence is the growing financial vulnerability that accompanies the accumulating malinvestment.
Even the yield chasers at the back of their minds fear a bust but they convince themselves that this cannot happen in the short run.
Vincent Nyagaka is a Professional Trader, Analyst & Author. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 7 years. He has a monthly readership of 100,000+ traders and has taught over 1,000 students since 2014. Vincent is also an experienced instructor and public speaker. Check out Vincent’s Professional Trading Course here.